Time flies

Wow where did that month go? Have hardly been able to trade and it's almost half over!

Guess I'll have to step it up a bit to get to my target. Although the target is just there for fun. I'm not going to trade more then I can do whilst being concentraded as I'll otherwise just be setting myself up for losing.

Although I don't have a lot to show for this month up till now I am having fun. I'm trying some new tactics and some new markets and it's fun trying to get my head around them with minimum stakes.

Basically I'm learning more about the mechanics. Also if you play with small stakes you have the luxury to not have to compete with the big dogs. I read a lot on forums that people have been trading for x time but still never win. I'd say they'd have to go find their niche like I do instead of trading the favorite UK horse 3 minutes before the off. That's when all the heavy hitters are scalping the market and it's no place for the lesser gods to be as long as there are greener pastures elsewhere. That's my tip for the day. Look at different horses and longer before the off if you haven't been able to turn a profit. Watch the market carefully and see how money gets matched. Then think long and hard how you can exploit it.

One weird thing I saw was a $1000,- lay at 1000 odds giving this guy a liability of 1 million!

This is on a UK horse 14 hours before the off. Just to give you an idea where I'm roaming around looking for an edge ;-)

Now this looked too good to be true, there was still $696,- open. I was racking my brain wondering why the hell someone would do this. Worst thing is, it's a 6 horse race!! So I'd say any horse that's at the start should have some sort of a chance. Really don't get why anyone would do that but seeing as he has at least a million $$ in his Betfair account I'd say there's a good chance he knows what he's doing. So I've backed it for $10,- just to see. I'm hoping to lay it back a lot lower.

I posted it on the http://www.racingtraders.com/ forum to see if someone else had a clue why this was happening and went to check http://www.racingpost.com/ to have a look at the race and the prognoses. Something I should've started with of course! But still learning.

Turns out that this is probably the worst horse in history. Wouldn't be surprised if it has 3 legs. No chance at all of winning. Terrible record, terrible trainer, terrible jockey.

This is what they had to say about the horse:

Dancing Wave
Guaranteed sixth place prize money if she completes but major surprise if this 6f AW claiming winner is not well tailed off.

So the person putting the lay bet it probably perceives it as a free $1000,-

Still if you have a look here:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=702205

Out of 34 starts the horse won 2, got in 2nd 8 times and 3d 4 times. I have much too little knowledge of horse racing to compare tracks, conditions and competition but I'd still say that you'll have to be pretty sure about yourself to stick a million on this one and say that even if you'd do this race a 1000 times it would never win.

I'm off to bed and will see how things look tomorrow. It would be great if I can lay it back at 500 or so. Then I can green up for the full $10,- stake. Although I'm also contemplating going for $5,- on the other 5 horses and have a $5000,- freeroll on this one. The fact that it's only 6 horses is making me nervous, it just seems to me that the chance of this one winning is much higher then 1000-1 The racingpost has her at 500-1, that's where I pulled my lay price from I'm aiming for. I'm not putting it in yet as I don't want to wake up tomorrow and find it at 150 -1 selling myself short for a nice sum.