zaterdag 30 mei 2009

Tennis and dogs

I've been doing some small peddling in tennis last couple of days.

Tomorrow I'll try to do a number of trades during the matches I watch and see if I can turn a profit.

By the first looks of it I can see myself doing well and hopefully I've found a new market to exploit.

I've finally managed to hook up BetAngel to Excel but boy is that hassle for people who don't use an English Vista. I will rant about this later. But as I try to always stay positive I'll also offer solutions after the rant but I'll tell you now that I'm not too impressed with BetAngel and their support on the forums at the moment. Their silence is telling me a lot as I'm sure they've read my problems on their forum.

I'm going to try to get some dog data out of it and see if I can find some golden rules. Somehow the fact that the dogs are always 6 in a race and the odds are more "connected" (if that makes sense) between dogs then they are between horse races where you have sometimes 15 selections give me the idea that patterns can be found.

Of course together with me numerous other people are trying to break the code so I'll probably will end up mumbling to myself years from now staring at millions of lines of Excel data but at least I'll be happy in my own special way :-)

If I'm completely barking up the wrong tree please let me know but I feel that the dogs odds are much more reactive to each other then the horses are. The big outsider in the dogs is always related to the shortness of the others. If you add up the odds you mostly get in the 34-40 range and with 40 you have a real outsider in the field. Otherwise it's mostly close to 36. With horse racing you sometimes have a horse that has a huge amount layed at 1000 odds begging for backers. The sum of all the horse odds are sometimes ridiculously high which makes you wonder what some of the horses are doing there, as apprantely everyone agrees that they can only win if every other horse breaks at least two legs. A horse can go up from 450 to 1000 without really affecting the other horses a lot odds wise. With the dogs if one dog goes up or down by a significant number you'll see the others move too to balance things out again.

My father is helping me with the Excel and statistical calculations. He's much better at that then I am and regardless if it bears fruits or not it's fun to be sussing things out together and if I learn from it that I'm chasing windmills that is good to know too so I can move on.

My tennis report and all about my big scare I'll post within a couple of days. Also a monthly wrap up but I'll tell you now some weird stuff will have to happen tomorrow for me to even come halfway my target I set at the beginning of the month!

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