Not my best month!
Can't hide behind not having enough time. The time I did have I spent on making some bad decisions.
On the other hand I've been learning a lot again and as you can see have gotten my feet wet on a number of different sports.
Wimbledon has got me excited and I'm stoked about trying out some ideas I have about tennis trading. My last bet on tennis got me in red for over $33,- (ouch!) so the strategies certainly need some work but I'll be using much smaller stakes.
Here's a post I did on www.racingtraders.com/forum concerning my tennis activities up till now. I think it pretty much sums it up and could be of interest to people reading this blog:
I find tennis tricky in the way that it's hard to get out cheap if things go wrong.
The ticks move so much that it always hurts.On the other hand if you get it right the profit is also big.
I'm not succesfull at tennis yet so I can only tell you where I cock up.I've been trying to learn some extra strategies besides the TS one.
Seeing as the TS opportunities are not many and with the volatility in odds going on I just have to get in.
My lessons so far:Don't get greedy. I've managed to cock up a number of nice green screens just by getting in that one last bet in a situation where deep down I know I'm starting to move from being a trader to being a gambler.
Example in two sets for the win match:5-4 in sets I lay the server. If he holds his serve I can get out for about the same price, if he gets broken it's bingo. Worked well up till now. There is some timing involved as you want to get in at the price it'll end up if he HOLDS his serve. I use the Betfair graph for that.Then there's the tie break and I take a position. This is silly! It's a pure gamble. If he wins the tie break it's halleluja, if he loses I'm screwed. They are not even for nothing up till then! This has cost me.
But then I do the dumbest thing, I put in another stake because I want to make up for the tick loss. So I double my liability, get out of my comfort zone and the game has to turn (such a good idea, betting AGAINST the flow of the game..) for me to get even or maybe a bit of green. Pure n00b move!I should've taken the red on the chin and decide on wether to get in again or not based on the information at hand and not let myself be crippled by the old bet still being in there and feeling I have to compensate for that.
What I'm working on is finding more situations where there's a big upside and little downside. I suppose these are to be found more in the first half of the match then in the last half and if the green screen is there with a decent amount I should quit while I'm ahead. Also I have to teach myself to vary my stakes depending on the risk/reward ratio of the situation. Good example would be to use max stake in a TS situation as it's a proven strategy and use minimal stake in my experiments. Somehow I get caught up in this urge to maximise profits and I forget that by experimenting with max stakes I also maximise my losses and they are to be expected when starting a new discipline.Hopefully someone will learn something from the mistakes described above and I hope to be able to post some things you should do soon rather then what you shouldn't.
I've linked the thread discussing the TS strategy in an earlier post. So if you wonder what that's all about you can find it. If you're starting out trading tennis I'd say it's the best place to start!
So let's hope Wimbledon will be the start of a profitable tennis trading carreer. I am prepared to pay learning money though to try out several tactics and suss out where the money is and where I have to stear clear.
Geen opmerkingen:
Een reactie posten