zaterdag 31 januari 2009

My first strategies

I've been dabbling in this for a couple of days now and I can honestly tell you that most of the time I have no clue which way the market will go. But I have found some situations in which I feel less lost and I've made a couple of strict rules for myself that I have no problem following.

I like the 20 - 10 minutes before the off period. While there are still gaps. Especially in the Aussie and the US races.

I wait until some money is matched to get an idea of what the true starting odds will be, as I know nothing about the horses so the unmatched prices tell me nothing. And then I simply make use of the gap. Trying to back high and lay low. I've noticed that the the bets you lay in that period tend to get matched easier then what you back. So I start out with the back bet, if that gets filled I lay it. At least I know that I'm out quickest possible. Which is the way I like it.

If things start to happen and it gets volatile I get out if I'm not matched yet. Just too big of a risk to get caught in a market that's rapidly settling itself to its true price at that moment when I have no clue what that true price is supposed to be.

Ok, rules.

1. I never let it go in running. Ever. I know nothing about horses, jockey's or racing so that's easy enough for me to stick to. Especially since the last 5 minutes before a race are a bit too volatile for me I mostly have taken my profit/loss well before the race starts.

2. I only enter the market if I have a plan. I don't bet for the betting itself.

3. When I put a bet in I've already decided where I'm putting the reverse bet in. If the market turns against me I'll take my loss quickly (in the beginning one bad bet would wipe out 6 or more good ones, now I try to not lose more value then I make in a bet, a penny saved is a penny earned). If the market goes heavily in my direction I'll move the bet up/down a lot to make the most of it but as soon as it heaves back to my preset profit I decided on I'll take it. If I believe it will go further I'll put in a new bet.

4. If a bet I put in doesn't get filled quickly, or I get the feeling the market is acting not accordingly to my plan I take it out again.

I have the feeling that being able to lessen your losses is as much as a factor in consistently profitable traders as being able to read the market in the first place. I'm sure there are people out there who have all the knowledge and skill to make money but blow it all away by not being able to cope with/ take losses and thus taking much bigger hits the necesary.

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